11.06.12 Could This Be the Last We Ever Hear of Mitt Romney?
Just about four years ago this time, I blithely predicted that John McCain had made himself so unpopular in both parties that we would be spared his bloviating henceforth. Alas, I had neglected to consider the fact he was a sitting senator with a lifetime free pass for war-mongering and other mischief, along with perpetual access to media microphones.
If Nate Silver’s brilliant poll analysis holds up, Mitt Romney should be at home licking his wounds quietly tomorrow, making plans to move out of the state that — having bequeathed him on us in the first place — has voted against him 75 to 25. The entire GOP will blame him for his loss, declaring him to have been too moderate. Who (other than his personal friends who own Nascar teams and Olympic horses) will ever talk to him again or give a shit what he’s thinking? Wouldn’t that be grand?
At 4:55pm EST on Election Afternoon, I am not yet celebrating, notwithstanding Nate Silver’s analysis that Barack Obama now has a 92% chance of being reelected.
Why not? Answer: Ohio (where I was born and bred)!
A substantial number of voting machines in Ohio are owned by right-wing firms. The GOP also holds many state offices and has been in all-out voter-suppression mode. There has been rampant speculation that the GOP stole the 2004 presidential race for W, when his win there was way out of alignment with exit polls (which, historically, have been nearly as accurate as actual vote counts). So how did Obama win Ohio in 2008? Easy: the GOP underestimated the number of votes they would have to annihilate to send their man over the top. They are less likely to make that mistake this time.
My gut sense (with no data to back it up) is that any Democrat must win by a good 5% statewide in Ohio to come out with a 1% victory.
The good news is that Obama may surpass that tonight. Further good news is that Obama can win the election without Ohio (which Romney can’t).
Whatever happens, we can sleep poorly knowing that our Great Nation — the greatest ever in human history, according to the entire GOP and most idiot Democrats — doesn’t have a clue about how to run transparent, (small-d) democratic elections and where one of the two Great Parties is deeply opposed to (small-d) democracy from the core of its being.
©2012 Keith Berner